With travel resuming and Covid restrictions lifted in most parts of the world, energy product flows are expected to rebound and record the strongest growth compared with last year. However, the effects of the war and the release of strategic oil reserves will weigh on growth. In Europe, efforts to replace piped Russian natural gas with liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to benefit LNG/LPG carriers the most (see box on LNG below).

Dry bulk flows are expected to show limited growth this year. After a strong year for industrial dry bulk and inventory rebuilding, especially in China, 2022 is likely to be more moderate. The return of coal as a power source, driven by surging gas prices, will continue in 2022 and support further growth. Grain production has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine, which involves two of the world’s largest exporters, and alternative supply will not fully offset this setback.

Container shipping growth will likely end the year below trend, as demand for goods softens with consumers shifting spending back toward services. Purchasing power is also being squeezed by higher prices and increased transportation costs. While uncertainty remains, global port figures for the first months of 2022 point to a positive start.